::perfect multicollinearity::: November 2010

Since our blog's name is quite "ilmiah", I would like to write on something yg ilmiah.hehehe...

Just to share with all of you.....=)

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After being hit by the wave of global financial crisis in the late of 2008, the economic all over the world became gloomy. Malaysia also not excluded from this situation. However, the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dato’ Seri Najib Tun Razak had bail out a stimulus package amounted RM67 billion to pump the economy of Malaysia. The stimulus package shows a positive progress. In 2Q of 2009, the Malaysian Gross Domestic Product in a real term were rise to -3.9% after the worst contraction of 6.2% in 1Q 2009. During this time, according to RAM Holdings, the private investment in Malaysia plunge to 19.9 %. Same goes to the mining and manufacturing industry, both industries were decline 3.8% and 9.3% respectively. However, as the stimulus package released, the Malaysian economy starts to rebound. In addition, with the strong domestic demand, the Malaysian economy hikes into a better position. The improvement in the export demand also slowly sustains the mild recovery process. Throughout 2009, the real growth in GDP increases qoq. Yet, the recovery process is still fragile. There is still a 50% chance of a relapse in the first half of 2010. The growth seen in most economies is artificial growth engineered by huge fiscal stimulus.

(source: http://www.statistics.gov.my/)

As the figure shown, the GDP growth rate starts to decline in the 1Q 2010. The worriness on the double dip recession cames into the picture. This cyclical slowdown is expected to occur in 2010, given weaker global trade conditions and the ongoing sovereign debt problem in the Eurozone. Still, the Malaysia Institute of Economic Research (MIER) anticipate the GDP growth rate will raise to +5.2% in 2010. While the OPR is expected to remain 2.75% by the end of 2010. Additionally, Malaysia Rating Agency Corporation (MARC) in their report stated that inflation will be benigned in 2010. However, they anticipate that price will goes up for certain items. Thus, it may affect the consumer spending. The inflation rate 1.95% was registered in March 2010. While the unemployment rate was reported 3.70%, which is higher than previous year. Below are the report published by Department of Statistics Malaysia on the sectors of economy as well as import and export data in the 2Q of 2010;

MANUFACTURING

The Manufacturing Sector continued its momentum for the second consecutive quarter by registering a double-digit growth of 15.9 per cent. Benefited from the surge in global and domestic demand, the Electric & Electronic (23.2 per cent), Transport Equipment & Other Manufactures (26.0 per cent) and Non-metallic Mineral Products, Basic Metal & Fabricated Metal Products (20.5 per cent) sub-sectors consequently recorded double-digit growth in this quarter. All the sub-sectors posted a positive growth except for the Textile, Wearing Apparel & Leather sub-sector which declined by 2.7 per cent.

CONSTRUCTION

In the second quarter 2010, the Construction Sector registered a growth of 4.1 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent in the previous quarter. The positive growth was supported largely by the stronger expansion in the Non-Residential and Civil Engineering sub-sectors. However, the Residential sub-sector recorded a negative growth.

SERVICES

The Services Sector which accounted for 56.9 per cent to GDP, expanded by 7.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2010. The growth was mainly bolstered by the trading and finance activities. The Wholesale & Retail Trade sub-sector (8.4 per cent) benefited from the resilient domestic demand, reflecting an improvement in the retail activity. The Finance & Insurance sub-sector strengthened further by 8.4 per cent in this quarter resulted from the recovery of business activities which has led to the higher demand for bank lending and life insurance.The subdued performance in the capital market has induced the growth of Real Estate & Business Services sub-sector to slow down by 2.6 per cent as compared to 14.2 per cent last quarter. The Communication sub-sector remained strong by registering a growth of 8.4 per cent due to the increase in the number of new subscribers especially in broadband and 3G segment. The favorable performance in domestic and external trade activities continued to propel the Transport & Storage sub-sector which rose by 9.2 per cent in this quarter.

EXPORT & IMPORT

External demand remained resilient with Exports recorded a growth of 13.8 per cent, mainly led by the higher demand of the Electric & Electronics and Petroleum & Gas industry. Similarly, the Imports increased by 21.9 per cent, contributed by the higher demand for Intermediate, Capital and Consumption Goods. ”

Source: http://www.statistics.gov.my/

As a conclusion, Malaysia has a bright chance to survive amidst the economic slowdown due to less dependency on European countries (not sure, just guessing). Additionally, government tabled many projects in Budget 2011 to help the private investment. As the aim of the budget is to have a private investment-driven economic. The increment in private investment would give the multiplier effect to the Malaysian GDP. Thus, it helps Malaysian economy to continue rebound.

*This is just a humble review from BUDAK BARU BELAJAR =)